Blockbuster NBA and MLB trades raise a debate: Is *any* NFL player worth four-plus first-round picks?
Nearly 36 years ago, it was the blockbuster trade that would dwarf all NFL blockbuster trades. If it were represented by a star in the NFL universe, it was a Hypergiant: Massive, radiant and magnitudes larger than most anything anyone had ever seen. Known forever by a simple title that should always be represented by every word starting with a capital letter. The Herschel Walker Deal. A mega trade that was so grandiose, virtually every studious personnel evaluator has at least some loose knowledge of it — this despite the trade being consummated in October of 1989, when many of the NFL's current set of general managers weren't even old enough to drive a car. Newly-hired Jacksonville Jaguars general manager James Gladstone hadn't even been born yet. And yet, ask him about The Herschel Walker Deal and he'll be able to tell you something about it. It was a trade that helped the Dallas Cowboys net a felonious haul for a star running back who had already peaked — including four players, three first round picks, three second rounders, as well as a third and a sixth. It was a bundle that helped lay the foundation of the Cowboys' 1990s dynasty, while simultaneously destroying the future of the Minnesota Vikings franchise that was landing Walker in the deal. Decades later, it's been the subject of various documentaries and media stories, not to mention tens of thousands of hours (if not more) of talk show, podcast, radio and social media content. Over the years, much of that has bubbled to the surface on a week like this, when we see one of two things happen: Either a sports franchise seemingly gives up the wold to trade for a player, or some cornerstone athlete who seems untouchable gets dealt away unexpectedly. We've seen both happen in the last few days. TheOrlando Magic acquiring Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Banefor four first-round picks, an additional first-round pick swap and two players; and theBoston Red Sox dealing seemingly untradeable young slugger Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giantsfor a quartet of players. Both shook up the sports world in their own way, with jaws wagging over the massive return the Grizzlies got for Bane, and fans stunned that a core player like Devers was flipped by the Red Sox. Naturally, each scenario lends itself to some thought experiments in other leagues. Most especially the NFL, which has seen many mega trades transpire in the decades since The Herschel Walker Deal, but none that quite equal the haul in the Bane deal, which is arguably forfivefirst-round picks when you consider the top-two protected pick swap in 2029. With that in mind, I reached out to 15 league sources across the spectrum of personnel departments and coaching staffs, effectively asking one question: Is thereanycurrent NFL player worth sending four consecutive first-round picks for? Predictably, the jury was anything but unanimous. Here are the votes, starting first with the outright "no" responses … Remarkably, six of 15 league sources — five from personnel departments and one AFC head coach — said they do not believeanysingle NFL player is worth surrendering four consecutive first-round picks with additional assets on top. The reasoning ran a broad spectrum. Among the thoughts shared: • NFL Draft capital is vastly different than NBA Draft capital.One personnel evaluator, one team president and one general manager shared the same opinion that the NBA's talent shelf for drafting "star" players dramatically decreases as you go down the board. One suggested that after the first 15 picks, the remainder of the NBA's first round (from picks to 16 to 30) produce useful starters far less often than NFL first-round picks in the same range. "That area after the first 15 picks [in the NBA draft], I think the rest of the first round is like our second, third, fourth rounds, where you're hoping to get a productive player who can contribute right away and eventually start," the evaluator said. "The second round [in the NBA] is more like our fifth or sixth rounds, where you're just trying to get a developmental player that you can keep. … NFL first-round picks are just deeper and more valuable because of the variety and depth of positions you can address. You're drafting for 22 starting [slots] and really 22 backup spots, where I think in the NBA, if you're not in the top five, you're probably just drafting for someone who fits into your top 10." One high-level executive added that the NFL turns first-round picks into more picks far more often than in the NBA. He reasoned that trading four consecutive first-round picks — when taking into consideration the trade-back-and-accrue approach — could really be like trading as many as 15 to 20 picks depending on what general manager is at the controls. "You can turn a first-round pick into five or six picks in the first three rounds spread over multiple drafts, because the talent pool is deeper and your needs are more broad with the roster sizes," he said. "That's not concept, either. There's proof in every draft. Teams turn picks into more picks constantly in the first two rounds. But when is the last time you saw an NBA team trade a first-rounder for a bunch of future seconds? … Even if that happens, what's the hit rate on those seconds compared to the number of starters or even stars that come out of the second round [of NFL Drafts]? NFL first-round picks are just more valuable and maneuverable." • When pressed for why some of the seemingly no-brainer quarterbacks aren't worth four first-round picks, responses ran the gamut.For example, three voters pointed out some element that Patrick Mahomes (who we'll get to later) either didn't come with Andy Reid in a trade, is on the doorstep of 30 and due for a contract adjustment that could make him a $60-to-$65-million-per-year quarterback, or (don't shoot the messenger here) has seen some subtle slippage the last two seasons in terms of his top-end production. As one NFC GM encapsulated it, "[Mahomes] is still that Ferrari, but he also hasn't been the 40 to 50 touchdown pass [player] in a few years — but we still hold him in that level like it's wrong to say that Kansas City's success has been more balanced the last couple years. The defense won them the Super Bowl two years ago and I think people just automatically give it to Mahomes. [Tom] Brady has that. We know some of his rings are defensive rings but he gets the overall credit. … I'm just saying: People will automatically say Mahomes is worth any asking price and I don't think that's how people in the NFL really feel. Like, if he's worth four straight first-round picks and other assets, then he might as well be worth six. You know? But is he really worth six? No. I don't think he's worth four right now either. Five years ago, sure. Now, no." • Among the six who voted no, there was definitely a common thread of negative sentiment after seeing what happened to the Cleveland Browns, who gave up three first-round picks and a third for Deshaun Watson, who was 26 at the time of the trade.Watson has been an unmitigated disaster for the Browns franchise,both in terms of the lost capital and the financial commitment Cleveland had to make to get the deal done. While the deep and troubling non-football issues coming with Watson can't be ignored, arguably nobody believed he'd completely collapse as a football player once joining the Browns, and that's precisely what happened. As one NFL personnel executive said, "What happened with [Watson] shows how much you're gambling when you sell out to thinking you're just one quarterback away from a Super Bowl." Interestingly, revisiting that disastrous Herschel Walker Deal for the Vikings back in 1989, one of the oft-repeated lines from that trade was then-Vikings general manager Mike Lynn telling reporters: "We're a Herschel Walker away from the Super Bowl." The Vikings made one postseason appearance in Walker's two and a half years in Minnesota. It was the season he was acquired, and they lost in the first round. The next two seasons, Minnesota went a combined 14-18. So they were not, in fact, one Herschel Walker away from even a single playoff win. While Mahomes certainly fell far short of unanimous, I will say that the six league sources who voted "no" on any players being worth four first-round picks all seemed to have at least an internal debate with themselves about Mahomes. I think he easily could have gotten close to all 15 votes on being the one player worth the freight. For those who did vote for him, there wasn't a great deal of expounding that followed. All stamped him easily, even with Mahomes approaching the 30-year-old mark in September. The general consensus is that he's the type of player than can lift an offense almost anywhere in the league — even without Andy Reid as his play-caller. As an AFC general manager put it, "There's no other player in the entire league worth the risk of trading more than you're comfortable [to get him]. His body of work is, other than Tom Brady at around this stage, better than anything in league history. It's like [Matthew] Stafford getting traded to the [Los Angeles] Rams. You knew what he was capable of as a player with an organization that really was not very good. You saw all the tools and he had a lot of production. Mahomes has all that and you have seen what that looks like inside an organization thatisgood. It's like with Stafford, those skills are his skills and that travels. If you think you can make the most of them, you sell out like the Rams did with Stafford." A solid drop-off from Mahomes, but you can see where part of the issue in the minds of voters is simply that Mahomes wins or appears in Super Bowls essentially every single season. Teams are clearly willing to pay the premium for a quarterback who knows how to get over the hump. Interestingly, the reasoning why Jackson, Allen and Burrow all only got three votes provides the perspective here. Jackson's lack of success in the postseason clearly hurt in the eyes of the voters. Allen's inability to simply break through the AFC title games weighed heavily. And Burrow's injury history and working with high-end skill position pieces gives some pause to voters when selling the draft pick farm. While it's inexplicable to think that 12 of 15 voters believe that Lamar Jackson isn't worth four consecutive first-round picks at this stage, consider this: In the 2023 offseason when he was at a contract impasse with the Baltimore Ravens, it was believed that a package containing onlytwofirst-round picks and some additional capital could have netted him in a trade. Jackson was only 26 at that time. The Ravens received no trade offers approaching that kind of capital. Reality is sometimes inexplicable. I expected more of a sugar high with Daniels coming off the Washington Commanders' astonishing 2024 season, but clearly there's some reticence when it comes to mortgaging so much of the future based on only one season of NFL performance. Lest we forget, there was a time when one season of Mac Jones with the New England Patriots made us believe they'd found their heir to Tom Brady, and one season of C.J. Stroud with the Houston Texans was enough to stoke league MVP aspirations in his second season. The NFL has a way of throwing some cold water on hot players in Year 2, and you could definitely sense that when it came to voters and Daniels. That said, he still had two executives in his corner — including an AFC general manager — when it came to possibly selling out for him right now. "He's a young, charismatic, talented playmaker and leader in the second year of a rookie contract who showed he can impact the culture of an entire franchise through the way he plays," the GM said. "That's what makes you want to package multiple first-round picks for to move up in a draft to get a franchise quarterback, and he's now shown you that he can deliver on this level with a team that still needs a lot of addition. … [Daniels] is also the kind of player that will never be available. [Washington] probably wouldn't trade him for six or seven first-round picks. You'd immediately lose the entire [fan] base and probably the locker room." Just for fun, I'll include what one NFC executive said, noting that this executive knows Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman and clearly has an affinity toward him. "I'd expand it a little further to 'Whatpersonis worth four first-round picks?'" the executive said. "What about Howie Roseman? Given everything he's done now, isn't he worth four first-round picks? You could probably put some other guys on that list to at least debate it, like [Los Angeles Rams GM] Les Snead or Andy Reid or maybe [Minnesota Vikings head coach] Kevin O'Connell. There was a time when [Bill] Belichick wasdefinitelyworth four first-round picks. I don't think they should be counted out." Considering former NFL head coach Jon Gruden was traded at the age of 39 from the then-Oakland Raiders to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for two first-rounders, two second-rounders and $8 million in cash back in 2002, it's certainly food for thought. The real question? Would Howie Roseman trade four first-round picks for himself? Stay tuned in training camp for that answer.
Blockbuster NBA and MLB trades raise a debate: Is *any* NFL player worth four-plus first-round picks? Nearly 36 years ago, it was the blockb...
