Adam Dubbin, Gators Wire Sun, October 11, 2026 at 11:56 AM UTC · 2 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Florida football was blown out by an SEC opponent for the second week in a row on Saturday — this time by the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks, who bullied the Orange and Blue on its homecoming day to the tune of a 38-19 defeat. With the loss, the Gators now teeter on the edge of ESPN's Football Power Index rankings top 25, while many of the other metrics saw significant declines as well.
The FPI measures team strength and is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season; it shows how many points above or below average a team is. Each team is assigned a rating that measures its true strength on a net points scale as well as expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field.
Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the season using FPI and the schedule. Take a look at how Florida's numbers shake out after Week 6's results.
Oct 10, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators wide receiver Bailey Stockton (3) scores a touchdown past South Carolina Gamecocks defensive back Judge Collier (8) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images (Matt Pendleton, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) 1 / 1 Bailey Stockton puts Florida's offensive woes on players, not coaches Oct 10, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators wide receiver Bailey Stockton (3) scores a touchdown past South Carolina Gamecocks defensive back Judge Collier (8) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images (Matt Pendleton, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) 1 / 1 Bailey Stockton puts Florida's offensive woes on players, not coaches Oct 10, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators wide receiver Bailey Stockton (3) scores a touchdown past South Carolina Gamecocks defensive back Judge Collier (8) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images (Matt Pendleton, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) Where Florida football ranks in ESPN's FPI after Week 6 Florida fell 10 spots to No. 25 in ESPN's FPI rankings after the Week 6 loss, and its rating dropped by 2.6 points to 12.6. Sumrall and Co. now sit between No. 24 Louisville (12.7) and No. 26 Penn State (12.5) in the standings.
The FPI now projects the Gators to finish this fall's regular-season schedule with a 6.6-5.4 record and with an ever-so-slight 0.2% chance of winning out — down from 0.3%. Florida's chances of finishing with six wins are down from a near-certain 95.1% to a still-solid 84.5%, while the odds of winning the conference fell by 0.7% to 0.1%.
The Gators' chance of making the College Football Playoff plummeted from 14.6% to 2.6%, along with a 0.1% chance of reaching the national championship game and a 0% chance of bringing home the national title — both declines of 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Home loss to South Carolina has Florida free-falling in ESPN's FPI
Source: Sport
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